Higher Loss Ratios in the Market Driven by Claim Trends

As reported by CSG Actuarial last week, the 2025 Medicare Supplement overall market loss ratio increased slightly to 85.3%, as carriers continued to attempt to catch premium rate levels up to the higher post-Covid claim utilization rates. 

Here are the historical annual changes in average Medicare Supplement premiums and claims per policy.

The chart above shows that the higher loss ratios in the overall Medicare Supplement market are being driven by claim trends that have been markedly higher since 2021, averaging over 7% per year during that time frame.  Medicare Supplement carriers have started implementing higher premium rate increases to offset the higher claim trends as shown below:  

Year     Avg Increase

2022    4.3%

2023    5.5%

2024    7.8%

2025    10.6% 

Most carriers only implement premium rate increases on the anniversary of each policy, so there’s a delayed impact of the higher premium amounts on the actual premiums being charged and the resulting loss ratios.  Based on the premium increases in past years and those known to date in 2026, CSG Actuarial is projecting that the overall Medicare Supplement loss ratios will start declining in 2026.